Video Tutorial with Jerry Robinson There are two major approaches to stock analysis: technical analysis and fundamental analysis. On this week’s live coaching call, I spent some time explaining the difference between these two approaches to stock analysis....
Are You Prepared for the Next Stock Market Crash?
Plus, an update on recent “Trigger Trading” activity
Jerry Robinson’s Stock Market Commentary. Flashback to 1929 and people were experiencing a massive crash, some stocks losing as much as 90%. Many people lost everything. Fast forward to today and we are now facing these markets at stratospheric levels because the Federal Reserve has pumped in so much money to drive stock prices up. Even the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has warned that the central banks have pumped in too much money for too long. How long can these markets continue going higher? No one knows the answer to when the stock market will have another massive crash, but there are some very specific things you can watch for in the markets in order to protect yourself from a massive decline akin to 1929. That’s why it is so important to understand charts, or find a service that does this for you.
What people have been told by Wall Street hype is to put as much money in the markets as you can and just leave it there. This concept made a lot of people go bankrupt in 1929. If you would have bought the Dow Jones at the very peak in 1929, it would have taken you until 1955 just to break even (let alone make any profits). Are we facing another massive crash? Well, we had one in 1929, in 1973, in 1987, in 2000-2001, and in 2008. It’s very possible that we are facing another crash, but no one knows exactly when this will happen. This is why it’s important to study the charts of the markets. And this is exactly why we created our Market Barometer. Our Market Barometer has three potential readings: GREEN, YELLOW, and RED. When it turns RED, I take my tax-deferred retirement money that’s in stocks (IRA, 401(k), Roth IRA) and sell. I refuse to sit through a downturn in these markets… while there are a few stocks (called our Forever Stocks) that I will hold no matter what, I will be selling the majority of my holdings during a RED market.
Many mainstream Wall Street types are going to try to keep you in these markets through a downturn. After all, it has taken forever to get the retail investor to even dip his toe back in the water of the stock market after they lost so much in 2008, so Wall Street definitely does not want that money fleeing again. So, we will see the financial media pushing upon the audience not to sell. Those who do hold on and do not sell during the next major downturn, I really don’t see how you will get back to these levels barring Herculean stimulus and intervention (even more than QE1, QE2, QE3). The only reason the S&P 500 is sitting near 2,000 and the Dow is nearing 17,000 is the Federal Reserve policy since 2008. So when the Fed completely tapers its stimulus programs in October (as they say they will) or when the demand for dollars around the globe diminishes to the place where the Fed has to stop printing more money, their help for the stock market goes away. So, the bottom line is that I will not be holding through a downturn.
Bankruptcy of Our Nation. The national debt has increased $7 trillion under President Obama in the last 5 five years. Under President Bush, the national debt doubled from $5 trillion to $10.6 trillion. Now it’s at $17.6 trillion, on its way to double since Obama entered office. The average household today has accumulated $153,000 in national debt under our current president. It is true indeed that Americans are on the hook for this debt. Someone will have to pay, whether it’s through increased taxes, reduced government benefits, or through inflation due to excessive money-printing to pay off the debt.
We currently have a Congress that is run by Republicans, and we’ve been told over and over that Congress controls the “purse strings” to federal money, but they continue to approve massive spending endeavors. Many citizens are angry at the politicians who have created this mess, and that’s understandable. But, you can only blame others for so long… you must take action for yourself. A new survey by the Federal Reserve 25% of households are just getting by financially. From the same study, the percentage of people without any retirement savings is 31%, and 20% of these people are age 50-59. In fact if you take all those in the survey age above 45, 40% of those people have no retirement savings at all. This in an absolute crisis.
The federal government paid out $2 trillion in benefits in 2013. $3.4 trillion was spent by the federal government during 2013, which means 60% of the federal budget was paid out in entitlement benefits. I have told you before that these benefits from the government are going to end up in riots and violence. Just this weekend, there were riots breaking out in Missouri over a police officer allegedly shot and killed a young black man. In my opinion, you have too many guns and too many people on prescription drugs running around on government benefits and an out-of-control government, which will result in absolute chaos and crisis. We think we are a rich nation, but when you strip back all of the debt and count it up, you find out we are living on borrowed time. It is only a matter of time before this thing implodes. This is part of the reason I left the city and moved to the middle of nowhere. I sensed in my mind and heart that it was time to leave the city before all hell breaks loose. If you decide you must stay in the city, it is absolutely vital to prepare yourself for chaos in the cities. You can visit our Five Levels of Financial Freedom to learn the steps you can take to begin breaking free from the debt-based monetary system that has enslaved many Americans.
Petrodollar Collapse Update. One of the main reasons Americans are experiencing economic turmoil is the breakdown of the petrodollar system. Russia and Iran signed an historic oil deal. Russian and Indian central banks have agreed to bypass the dollar in bilateral trade. We have this ongoing tit-for-tat between the West and Russia, and it is largely due to Russia moving away from the dollar in trade. Russia is attempting to bypass the dollar.
Think about what happened in Iraq in the past decade. Before 2003, although Saddam Hussein was not the poster child for good leaders, he kept groups like al-Queda and ISIS at bay. The Christians were not living in fear from day-to-day. But when George W. Bush and Dick Cheney took out Saddam, they removed the “strong man” from the region who kept terrorists at bay. Now, ISIS is taking over and doing untold damage, killing men, women, and children. Many of the terrorists in ISIS are from areas in Europe and the Middle East. When these fighters come back home to their countries (in Europe and maybe even the U.S.), they are able come back undetected because ISIS allows Visa-free travel. So, are ISIS attacks possible in the U.S.? Absolutely. And if that happens, you can bet that the police-state and the NSA will tighten the noose around the American people’s necks. And how can we have a multi-billion dollar security agency and not detect when a terrorist comes into the country? The American people should demand accountability from the NSA. When the NSA allows something to happen in America, I believe their heads should roll. They are essentially our employees… they are paid by our tax dollars. They are groping Grandma and sticking their hands down your wife’s pants at the airport, but they can’t stop a terrorist attack? They should be shut down immediately (along with the IRS, the Department of Education, and several other governmental overreach programs).
Bleak Future Ahead. I’m not sold on the idea that things get better from here. I think we will have riots in the street and potentially a war on the horizon. Just imagine: hackers are able to get into the government benefit system and wipe out the account balances of EBT cards. What do you think Wal-Mart would look like on the 1st? It would be absolute chaos and insanity. We have concerns of hacking of the overall electrical grid. In fact, earlier this year a government agency warned that if 9 substations were destroyed, the power grid could be down for 18 months, which would cause unthinkable damage. I feel in my gut that we have got to be prepared. Something is coming, and I don’t know if it is a stock market crash, a world war, riots in the streets, ISIS and terrorism, or some other crisis. And you have the petrodollar system breaking down, tit-for-tat between Russia and the U.S., NATO running war drills in Ukraine, and the S&P 500 at all time highs. It cannot get better from here. And I say all of this not to scare you or depress you, but so that you can get the motivation to prepare for harder times.
Tom Cloud – Precious Metals Advisor
Free Precious Metals Investing Resources
Next, Jennifer Robinson is here to update our FTM Insiders on Trigger Trading activity for the past month. Although July was a down month for the markets overall, we had some great trades, with our winners outnumbering our losers 8 to 6. Our top winners included CTP for a 9.77% gain, AMD bringing in 8.4%, and EBAY profiting 4.25%. CTP and AMD earned their profits each in only 3 trading days. We had some positions stop out, mainly during the last week of July when the overall markets were down substantially. These positions include KMT down 3.76%, and TXT down 3.75%. We currently have six stocks in play and are awaiting the trigger price on five other stocks.
Recent Trigger Trade Performance
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DISCLAIMER: The above trading ideas are from my own personal stock watchlist and are for educational and informational purposes only. They are NOT specific buy recommendations. Trading stocks is risky and you could lose all of your money. Trade at your own risk. Jerry Robinson is not an investment advisor. You should always consult a trusted financial services professional before making any financial or investment decisions. READ FULL DISCLAIMER.