Trend for Position Traders
4/16/21… UPDATE: The S&P 500 index rose 1.3% last week to close at a new record high. The index remains locked in an historic uptrend.
The S&P 500 index notched another record close on Friday boosted by better than expected earnings, a rebound in consumer spending, and historically loose fiscal and monetary policies. This was the fourth consecutive positive week for the S&P 500 (and the Dow Jones.) The index closed the week at 4185 after just recently crossed above the 4000 level for the first time ever.
Preliminary consumer sentiment index data rose to a one-year high this month while retail sales show signs of improvement. So too, unemployment figures continue to improve with the Labor Department reporting 576,000 first-time filings for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 10, which is the lowest level since March 2020.
So too, the big U.S. banks reported record profits in the first quarter, which helped lift stock prices generally.
So too, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped nearly 7% on the week (the 30-year fell nearly 5%), which aided the rise of equity prices last week.
This week’s leading S&P 500 sectors were Utilities (XLU +3.7%) and Basic Materials (XLB +3.2%).
Market volatility has declined significantly as the S&P 500 continues to hit record high.
The “Sell in May and Go Away” crowd will arrive in three weeks.
The major uptrends in the S&P 500 index remain intact as we head into next week.
The index recently staged its third bounce off the 50 DMA line this year. We continue to watch key 50 DMA and 120 DMA support (currently around $3778) on the S&P 500 index. A breach below that level could signal more selling pressure ahead.
With enormous amounts of liquidity (leverage) sloshing around the financial markets, it is not surprising to see many bubbles being blown. Of course, we have been saying as much for several weeks since alerting our members to historic market breadth levels. However, moral hazard is now fully in play and speculators are likely to buy dips as long as monetary and fiscal policies remain aggressively accommodative.
When another change in the trend of the S&P 500 index is detected, we will alert our members!
Our Market Trakker alert system will keep you advised of the current broad U.S. stock market trend. When we detect a change in the major Long-Term trend, our members will be notified by email (and inside The Robinson Report) along with details on how we are responding.
Long-Term Trend for Long-Term Investors
4/16/21… The S&P 500 Long-Term trend remains in a confirmed Long-term uptrend based upon our trading system. While there are plenty of obstacles (and volatility) likely ahead, the uptrend is intact — for now. When our Market Trakker system detects a change in the underlying Long-Term Trend in the S&P 500, this page will be updated and all current members will be alerted by email.
- Market Trakker Charts – Updated Every Weekend
S&P 500 Index – Daily Chart
S&P 500 Index – Long-Term Trend (Monthly) Chart
(Long-Term Uptrend – Detected 8/14/20))
S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) – Position Trend (Weekly) Chart
(Position Uptrend – Detected 5/31/20)
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks Above 200 DMA
(Measures market participation)
U.S. New Highs-New Lows
(Gauges internal trend momentum)
NYSE Bullish Percentage Index
(Measures market participation)
S&P 500 Index – P/E Ratio
(Current P/E valuation of S&P 500)
Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917)
Max: 123.73 (May 2009)
- Market Trakker Resources
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