Trend for Position Traders
5/29/20… The S&P 500 index confirmed a new Position uptrend last week after managing to breakout above the 200 DMA and to close the week above that level. Every new Position uptrend is vulnerable and should be closely monitored until it rises around 3%-5%, which should preferably occur on larger than normal volume.
The S&P 500 index rose 2.95% last week as investors continued to push stocks higher backed by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing purchases of government and corporate securities. The S&P 500 ended the week about 38% above an intraday low set on March 23. High expectations of a “strong” and “quick” recovery by some (not all) investors have catapulted many U.S. stock prices higher in recent weeks, even as the U.S. economy continues its historic downward spiral. Emboldened by the most extreme Federal Reserve monetary policy ever, investors are pushing stock prices to historic valuations despite America’s devastating economic carnage, widespread unemployment, no national pandemic plan, and mixed messaging from official channels over the timing and efficacy of a potential vaccine.
For now, the index enjoys near-term support at $2960 and major support at $2775.
While a pullback is overdue, the buying spree by investors is likely to continue in the coming days and weeks as they remain drunk on historic amounts of funny money and “hopium” from the elites who desperately want the economy re-opened so their serfs can get back to the plow.
Just because a new Position uptrend has been confirmed, it does not automatically mean that a new Long-Term uptrend is coming next. While it certainly could, there are so many uncertainties ahead in this election year. The fact that the equity markets are convulsing higher on massive capital infusions forcing investors to weigh the upside from unlimited money printing against the downside from a new great depression is neither a healthy or natural development. It is a sign of great moral hazard in the capital markets at the cost of the bottom 80% of U.S. taxpayers who have historically carried the least of the nation’s assets while bearing the large majority of its debts.
We are neutral to bullish on the S&P 500. And even then, we still feel uncomfortable from a long-term investing perspective in this extremely frothy market.
In the meantime, this is a “stock picker’s market.”
Choose wisely and you will be handsomely rewarded in this environment.
Choose poorly and you will suffer.
Most new traders should “paper trade” this market before putting real money at stake.
When another change in the trend of the S&P 500 index is detected, we will alert our members!
All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in positive territory last week. Financials (XLF +6.8%) and Industrials (XLI +6%) were the strongest sector performers of the week.
Our Market Trakker alert system will keep you advised of the current broad U.S. stock market trend. When we detect a change in the major Long-Term trend, our members will be notified by email (and inside The Robinson Report) along with details on how we are responding.
Long-Term Trend for Long-Term Investors
5/29/20… The S&P 500 historic Long-Term uptrend remains in a confirmed Long-Term downtrend. While the index is certainly flirting with a new uptrend, the downside risk remains a stronger possibility than more upside gain — at least for now. When our Market Trakker system detects a change in the underlying Long-Term Trend in the S&P 500, this page will be updated and all current members will be alerted by email.
- Market Trakker Charts – Updated Every Weekend
S&P 500 Index – Daily Chart
S&P 500 Index – Long-Term Trend (Monthly) Chart
(Confirmed Long-Term Downtrend)
S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) – Position Trend (Weekly) Chart
(Position Downtrend – Detected 2/27/20)
Updated: 5/29/20S&P 500 Futures Chart
Updates upon refresh during market hours
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks Above 200 DMA
(Measures market participation)
U.S. New Highs-New Lows
(Gauges internal trend momentum)
NYSE Bullish Percentage Index
(Measures market participation)
S&P 500 Index – P/E Ratio
(Current P/E valuation of S&P 500)
Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917)
Max: 123.73 (May 2009)
- Market Trakker Resources
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