In the summer of 2014, investors launched a new buying wave of the U.S. dollar in anticipation of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve. By March 2015, the dollar index had rallied an impressive 28% before hitting major resistance.

Since topping out in March, the dollar has been battling to resume its massive uptrend and is now threatening to breach two key support levels near $93.50 and especially $93.

Part of the reason why the dollar has come under pressure as of late has to do with the indeterminate and ambiguous speech coming from Federal Reserve officials, which has brought former investor certainty of an imminent interest rate hike into question. (Higher interest rates boost the value of a nation’s currency.)

More poor economic data, both domestic and global, will only compound this uncertainty.

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Case in point: This week, Wal-Mart announced that it expected to see a decline in profits during the next fiscal year. Not only did this cause the biggest plunge in Wal-Mart’s stock in nearly three decades, it also sent the dollar tumbling and gave an added boost to rising gold prices.

Our view is that while the dollar is currently under fire, it is the only major currency (of the 10 currencies we track each month in our Global Currency Monitor) that remains in an uptrend.

In fact, this recent rally sent the U.S. dollar soaring above a major 30-year resistance level.

As long as the uptrend remains, I plan to remain long the U.S. dollar.

Until next time,
Jerry Robinson